Logistic regression model for 30 day mortality. Data are No. (%) or odds ratio (95% confidence interval)
| Dependent: 30 day mortality | Survived | Died | Odds ratio (univariable) | Odds ratio (multivariable) | Odds ratio (multiple imputation) |
| Multimorbidity: | |||||
| No multimorbidity | 402 804 (98.8) | 4969 (1.2) | — | — | — |
| Multimorbidity | 39 957 (91.8) | 3547 (8.2) | 7.20 (6.88 to 7.52, P<0.001) | 1.81 (1.72 to 1.91, P<0.001) | 1.78 (1.69 to 1.87, P<0.001) |
| Age, mean (SD) | 47.2 (20.6) | 75.0 (14.3) | 1.07 (1.07 to 1.08, P<0.001) | 1.06 (1.06 to 1.06, P<0.001) | 1.06 (1.06 to 1.06, P<0.001) |
| Sex | |||||
| Female | 221 780 (98.2) | 4113 (1.8) | — | — | — |
| Male | 220 981 (98.0) | 4403 (2.0) | 1.07 (1.03 to 1.12, P=0.001) | 1.23 (1.17 to 1.29, P<0.001) | 1.23 (1.18 to 1.29, P<0.001) |
| Ethnic group | |||||
| White | 344 662 (98.1) | 6825 (1.9) | — | — | — |
| Asian | 8686 (99.4) | 53 (0.6) | 0.31 (0.23 to 0.40, P<0.001) | 0.74 (0.55 to 0.97, P=0.037) | 0.72 (0.52 to 1.01, P=0.055) |
| African/black | 2880 (99.7) | 10 (0.3) | 0.18 (0.09 to 0.31, P<0.001) | 0.63 (0.31 to 1.13, P=0.158) | 0.46 (0.24 to 0.87, P=0.017) |
| Other/multiple groups | 14 478 (99.7) | 40 (0.3) | 0.14 (0.10 to 0.19, P<0.001) | 0.50 (0.35 to 0.67, P<0.001) | 0.51 (0.28 to 0.93, P=0.029) |
| Refused/unknown/missing | 72 055 (97.8) | 1588 (2.2) | 1.11 (1.05 to 1.18, P<0.001) | 1.37 (1.29 to 1.46, P<0.001) | — |
| Scottish index of multiple deprivation: | |||||
| 5 (least deprived) | 112 013 (98.1) | 2120 (1.9) | — | — | — |
| 4 | 81 184 (98.3) | 1409 (1.7) | 0.92 (0.86 to 0.98, P=0.012) | 1.17 (1.09 to 1.26, P<0.001) | 1.17 (1.09 to 1.26, P<0.001) |
| 3 | 79 376 (98.1) | 1565 (1.9) | 1.04 (0.98 to 1.11, P=0.224) | 1.35 (1.25 to 1.44, P<0.001) | 1.34 (1.25 to 1.44, P<0.001) |
| 2 | 99 599 (97.9) | 2132 (2.1) | 1.13 (1.06 to 1.20, P<0.001) | 1.39 (1.30 to 1.48, P<0.001) | 1.37 (1.29 to 1.47, P<0.001) |
| 1 (most deprived) | 62 131 (98.0) | 1239 (2.0) | 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13, P=0.148) | 1.50 (1.39 to1.62, P<0.001) | 1.49 (1.38 to 1.61, P<0.001) |
| Scottish index of multiple deprivation unknown | 8458 (99.4) | 51 (0.6) | 0.32 (0.24 to0.42, P<0.001) | 0.83 (0.62 to 1.10, P=0.211) | — |
| Triage category: | |||||
| Medical expected | 8257 (96.9) | 265 (3.1) | — | — | — |
| See and treat | 67 148 (100.0) | 9 (0.0) | 0.00 (0.00 to 0.01, P<0.001) | 0.01 (0.01 to 0.02, P<0.001) | 0.01 (0.01 to 0.02, P<0.001) |
| Standard or non-urgent | 129 157 (99.9) | 163 (0.1) | 0.04 (0.03 to 0.05, P<0.001) | 0.08 (0.06 to 0.09, P<0.001) | 0.08 (0.06 to 0.09, P<0.001) |
| Urgent | 163 039 (98.7) | 2091 (1.3) | 0.40 (0.35 to 0.46, P<0.001) | 0.49 (0.43 to 0.56, P<0.001) | 0.48 (0.42 to 0.55, P<0.001) |
| Very urgent or immediate | 61 699 (91.2) | 5940 (8.8) | 3.00 (2.65 to 3.41, P<0.001) | 2.51 (2.20 to 2.87, P<0.001) | 2.47 (2.17 to 2.82, P<0.001) |
| Other or unknown | 13 475 (99.6) | 48 (0.4) | 0.11 (0.08 to 0.15, P<0.001) | 0.30 (0.21 to 0.40, P<0.001) | — |
| Prior emergency department attendances: | |||||
| No presentation | 365 110 (98.3) | 6273 (1.7) | — | — | — |
| One presentation | 54 922 (97.4) | 1440 (2.6) | 1.53 (1.44 to 1.62, P<0.001) | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.06, P=0.808) | 0.98 (0.92 to 1.04, P=0.439) |
| Two presentations | 22 729 (96.6) | 803 (3.4) | 2.06 (1.91 to 2.21, P<0.001) | 0.98 (0.90 to 1.07, P=0.666) | 0.95 (0.88 to 1.04, P=0.256) |
| Time of day: | |||||
| 0600-1159 | 112 192 (98.1) | 2170 (1.9) | — | — | — |
| 1200-1759 | 159 166 (98.2) | 2987 (1.8) | 0.97 (0.92 to 1.03, P=0.289) | 0.94 (0.89 to 1.00, P=0.045) | 0.94 (0.89 to 1.00, P=0.045) |
| 1800-2359 | 122 051 (98.2) | 2260 (1.8) | 0.96 (0.90 to 1.02, P=0.151) | 0.91 (0.85 to 0.97, P=0.003) | 0.91 (0.85 to 0.97, P=0.003) |
| 0000-0559 | 49 348 (97.8) | 1099 (2.2) | 1.15 (1.07 to 1.24, P<0.001) | 0.96 (0.89 to 1.04, P=0.300) | 0.96 (0.89 to 1.04, P=0.288) |
| Month: | |||||
| January to March | 106 454 (97.9) | 2326 (2.1) | — | — | — |
| April to June | 110 460 (98.2) | 2022 (1.8) | 0.84 (0.79 to 0.89, P<0.001) | 0.91 (0.86 to 0.97, P=0.005) | 0.91 (0.86 to 0.97, P=0.005) |
| July to September | 113 062 (98.3) | 1922 (1.7) | 0.78 (0.73 to 0.83, P<0.001) | 0.88 (0.83 to 0.94, P<0.001) | 0.88 (0.83 to 0.94, P<0.001) |
| October to December | 112 785 (98.0) | 2246 (2.0) | 0.91 (0.86 to 0.97, P=0.002) | 0.93 (0.87 to 0.99, P=0.024) | 0.94 (0.88 to 1.00, P=0.038) |
| Year: | |||||
| 2012 | 51 879 (97.6) | 1297 (2.4) | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 51 309 (97.8) | 1165 (2.2) | 0.91 (0.84 to 0.98, P=0.018) | 1.01 (0.93 to 1.10, P=0.839) | 1.02 (0.94 to 1.11, P=0.658) |
| 2014 | 54 160 (98.1) | 1077 (1.9) | 0.80 (0.73 to 0.86, P<0.001) | 0.80 (0.74 to 0.88, P<0.001) | 0.82 (0.75 to 0.90, P<0.001) |
| 2015 | 52 323 (97.9) | 1126 (2.1) | 0.86 (0.79 to 0.93, P<0.001) | 0.82 (0.75 to 0.89, P<0.001) | 0.84 (0.77 to 0.91, P<0.001) |
| 2016 | 54 447 (98.0) | 1095 (2.0) | 0.80 (0.74 to 0.87, P<0.001) | 0.78 (0.71 to 0.85, P<0.001) | 0.80 (0.73 to 0.87, P<0.001) |
| 2017 | 55 770 (98.3) | 988 (1.7) | 0.71 (0.65 to 0.77, P<0.001) | 0.64 (0.58 to 0.70, P<0.001) | 0.67 (0.61 to 0.73, P<0.001) |
| 2018 | 58 257 (98.4) | 928 (1.6) | 0.64 (0.59 to 0.69, P<0.001) | 0.57 (0.52 to 0.63, P<0.001) | 0.60 (0.55 to 0.66, P<0.001) |
| 2019 | 64 616 (98.7) | 840 (1.3) | 0.52 (0.48 to 0.57, P<0.001) | 0.47 (0.43 to 0.52, P<0.001) | 0.50 (0.46 to 0.55, P<0.001) |
Logistic regression models (univariable and multivariable) using 30 day mortality as the outcome. No. in dataframe=451 291, No. in model=451 273, missing=18, Akaike Information Criterion=59 075·5, C-statistic=0·923, Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2(degrees of freedom 8)=163·87 (P<0·001). In multiple imputation model, 451 291 patients were included· Missing values for sex (n=14 (0·0%)), Scottish index of multiple deprivation (n=8509 (1·9%)), ethnic group (n=73 646 (16·3%)), triage category (n=13 523 (3·0%)), and presentation time (n=4 (0·0%)) have been imputed using a pool of 10 iterations.
SD, standard deviation.