Vaccine effectiveness against covid-19 related death in hospital by follow-up time intervals and vaccine group
| Follow-up time intervals and vaccination status | No of individuals who died/Total No in group (%) | Median follow-up (IQR) | Model 1 (HR, 95% CI)* | Model 2 (adjusted HR, 95% CI)† | Vaccine effectiveness (%, 95% CI) |
| After the first dose | |||||
| ≥0 day: | |||||
| BNT162b2—No | 5024/7 161 658 (0.07) | 49 (19 to 115) | 1 | 1 | — |
| BNT162b2—Yes | 1481/7 161 658 (0.02) | 49 (19 to 116) | 0.29 (0.27 to 0.31) | 0.28 (0.26 to 0.29) | 72 (71 to 74) |
| mRNA-1273—No | 499/856 599 (0.06) | 47 (20 to 115) | 1 | 1 | — |
| mRNA-1273—Yes | 126/856 599 (0.01) | 48 (20 to 117) | 0.25 (0.21 to 0.30) | 0.24 (0.19 to 0.29) | 76 (71 to 81) |
| ChAdOx1 nCoV-19—No | 648/3 238 575 (0.02) | 51 (22 to 115) | 1 | 1 | — |
| ChAdOx1-S—Yes | 179/3 238 575 (0.01) | 51 (22 to 116) | 0.27 (0.23 to 0.32) | 0.27 (0.23 to 0.32) | 73 (68 to 77) |
| 0–6 days: | |||||
| BNT162b2—No | 689/7 161 658 (0.01) | 6 (6 to 6) | 1 | 1 | — |
| BNT162b2—Yes | 198/7 161 658 (0) | 6 (6 to 6) | 0.29 (0.25 to 0.34) | 0.32 (0.28 to 0.38) | 68 (62 to 72) |
| mRNA-1273—No | 70/856 599 (0.01) | 6 (6 to 6) | 1 | 1 | — |
| mRNA-1273—Yes | 19/856 599 (0) | 6 (6 to 6) | 0.27 (0.16 to 0.45) | 0.28 (0.17 to 0.47) | 72 (53 to 83) |
| ChAdOx1-S—No | 126/3 238 575 (0) | 6 (6 to 6) | 1 | 1 | — |
| ChAdOx1-S—Yes | 25/3 238 575 (0) | 6 (6 to 6) | 0.20 (0.13 to 0.30) | 0.27 (0.17 to 0.41) | 73 (59 to 83) |
| 7–13 days: | |||||
| BNT162b2—No | 657/6 518 914 (0.01) | 6 (6 to 6) | 1 | 1 | — |
| BNT162b2—Yes | 373/6 518 914 (0.01) | 6 (6 to 6) | 0.57 (0.50 to 0.64) | 0.57 (0.50 to 0.65) | 43 (35 to 50) |
| mRNA-1273—No | 51/783 793 (0.01) | 6 (6 to 6) | 1 | 1 | — |
| mRNA-1273—Yes | 49/783 793 (0.01) | 6 (6 to 6) | 0.96 (0.65 to 1.42) | 1.04 (0.69 to 1.57) | −4 (–57 to 31) |
| ChAdOx1-S—No | 96/3 023 849 (0) | 6 (6 to 6) | 1 | 1 | — |
| ChAdOx1-S—Yes | 49/3 023 849 (0) | 6 (6 to 6) | 0.51 (0.36 to 0.72) | 0.48 (0.33 to 0.68) | 52 (32 to 67) |
| 14–28 days: | |||||
| BNT162b2—No | 1132/5 828 107 (0.02%) | 14 (14 to 14) | 1 | 1 | — |
| BNT162b2—Yes | 513/5 828 107 (0.01%) | 14 (14 to 14) | 0.45 (0.41 to 0.50) | 0.42 (0.38 to 0.47) | 58 (53 to 62) |
| mRNA-1273—No | 118/704 523 (0.02%) | 14 (14 to 14) | 1 | 1 | — |
| mRNA-1273—Yes | 39/704 523 (0.01%) | 14 (14 to 14) | 0.33 (0.23 to 0.47) | 0.31 (0.21 to 0.45) | 69 (55 to 79) |
| 14–84 days: | |||||
| ChAdOx1-S—No | 377/2 765 229 (0.01) | 49 (19 to 70) | 1 | 1 | — |
| ChAdOx1-S—Yes | 100/2 765 229 (0) | 49 (20 to 70) | 0.26 (0.21 to 0.33) | 0.24 (0.19 to 0.30) | 76 (70 to 81) |
| After the second dose | |||||
| ≥0 days: | |||||
| BNT162b2—No | 2619/4 510 470 (0.06) | 61 (22 to 103) | 1 | 1 | — |
| BNT162b2—Yes | 300/4 510 470 (0.01) | 62 (22 to 105) | 0.11 (0.10 to 0.13) | 0.10 (0.09 to 0.11) | 90 (89 to 91) |
| mRNA-1273—No | 263/531 145 (0.05) | 59 (20 to 105) | 1 | 1 | — |
| mRNA-1273—Yes | 11/531 145 (0) | 61 (20 to 106) | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.08) | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.07) | 96 (93 to 98) |
| ChAdOx1-S—No | 56/1161249 (0%) | 52 (29 to 72) | 1 | 1 | — |
| ChAdOx1-S—Yes | 6/1 161 249 (0) | 52 (29 to 72) | 0.11 (0.05 to 0.25) | 0.12 (0.05 to 0.29) | 88 (71 to 95) |
| ≥7 days: | |||||
| BNT162b2—No | 2162/4 109 949 (0.05%) | 63 (22 to 100) | 1 | 1 | — |
| BNT162b2—Yes | 247/4 109 949 (0.01%) | 64 (23 to 101) | 0.11 (0.10 to 0.13) | 0.10 (0.09 to 0.11) | 90 (89 to 91) |
| mRNA-1273—No | 210/479 662 (0.04%) | 64 (21 to 101) | 1 | 1 | — |
| mRNA-1273—Yes | 10/479 662 (0%) | 64 (21 to 101) | 0.05 (0.02 to 0.09) | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.08) | 96 (92 to 98) |
| ChAdOx1-S—No | 48/1 082 665 (0) | 49 (28 to 67) | 1 | 1 | — |
| ChAdOx1-S—Yes | 5/1 082 665 (0) | 49 (28 to 67) | 0.10 (0.04 to 0.26) | 0.12 (0.05 to 0.31) | 88 (69 to 95) |
| ≥14 days: | |||||
| BNT162b2—No | 1778/3 702 098 (0.05) | 62 (25 to 98) | 1 | 1 | — |
| BNT162b2—Yes | 183/3 702 098 (0) | 62 (25 to 98) | 0.10 (0.09 to 0.12) | 0.09 (0.07 to 0.10) | 91 (90 to 93) |
| mRNA-1273—No | 163/426 617 (0.04) | 63 (25 to 98) | 1 | 1 | — |
| mRNA-1273—Yes | 7/426 617 (0) | 64 (25 to 98) | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.09) | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.08) | 96 (92 to 98) |
| ChAdOx1-S—No | 45/1 001 776 (0) | 43 (27 to 62) | 1 | 1 | — |
| ChAdOx1-S—Yes | 5/1 001 776 (0%) | 43 (27 to 62) | 0.11 (0.04 to 0.28) | 0.12 (0.05 to 0.32) | 88 (68 to 95) |
IQR=interquartile range; HR=hazard ratio; CI=confidence interval; Yes=vaccinated; No=unvaccinated.
*Model 1: adjusted for matching variables (age, sex, region of residence, nursing home status).
†Model 2: model 1 with further adjustment for social deprivation index, history of positive covid-19 status, history of influenza vaccination, frailty, alcohol related conditions, smoking related conditions, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, obesity related conditions, coronary heart disease, heart failure, cardiac rhythm disorder, valvular heart disease, occlusive peripheral arterial disease, stroke, pulmonary embolism, chronic respiratory conditions, dialysis, having a transplanted kidney, liver failure, active cancer, depression, psychosis, dementia, epilepsy, Parkinson’s disease, inflammatory bowel disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and ankylosing spondylitis.