Associations between trajectories of modifiable risk factors and trajectories of change in risk factors from baseline and odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of achieving longevity by pooling data from the Nurses’ Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study
| Risk factor | Change in risk factor from baseline | |||||
| Medium | Low | High | No change | Increase | Decrease | |
| Body mass index | ||||||
| No of participants who achieved longevity/ Total No of participants | 18 655/32 857 | 22 105/38 051 | 3591/8754 | 25 095/38 695 | 4071/9809 | 11 615/22 748 |
| Model 1 or 3 | 1.00 | 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08) | 0.52 (0.50 to 0.55) | 1.00 | 0.43 (0.41 to 0.45) | 0.56 (0.54 to 0.58) |
| Model 2 or 4 | 1.00 | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.01) | 0.60 (0.57 to 0.64) | 1.00 | 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76) | 0.56 (0.54 to 0.59) |
| Smoking | ||||||
| No of participants/ Total No of participants | 3105/8817 | 40 637/67 990 | 1095/4388 | 39 925/67 287 | 527/1647 | 2336/6772 |
| Model 1 or 3 | 1.00 | 2.93 (2.80, 3.07) | 0.60 (0.56 to 0.66) | 1.00 | 0.49 (0.43 to 0.55) | 1.31 (1.20 to 1.44) |
| Model 2 or 4 | 1.00 | 2.75 (2.61 to 2.90) | 0.55 (0.50 to 0.60) | 1.00 | 0.63 (0.55 to 0.72) | 1.26 (1.14 to 1.40) |
| Diet quality (AHEI) | ||||||
| No of participants/ Total No of participants | 20 439/35 470 | 12 395/25 111 | 11 808/18 972 | 20 018/32 453 | 11 114/18 895 | 9951/17 717 |
| Model 1 or 3 | 1.00 | 0.72 (0.69 to 0.74) | 1.22 (1.18 to 1.26) | 1.00 | 1.01 (0.96 to 1.05) | 0.66 (0.63 to 0.69) |
| Model 2 or 4 | 1.00 | 0.85 (0.81 to 0.88) | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) | 1.00 | 1.03 (0.98 to 1.08) | 0.81 (0.77 to 0.85) |
| Physical activity | ||||||
| No of participants/ Total No of participants | 14 600/23 867 | 28 071/54 329 | 2629/4577 | 16 862/30 344 | 23 055/40 387 | 1259/2570 |
| Model 1 or 3 | 1.00 | 0.68 (0.66 to 0.70) | 0.86 (0.80 to 0.91) | 1.00 | 1.01 (0.97 to 1.06) | 0.56 (0.50 to 0.62) |
| Model 2 or 4 | 1.00 | 0.71 (0.69 to 0.74) | 0.88 (0.82 to 0.95) | 1.00 | 1.10 (1.05 to 1.15) | 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80) |
| Alcohol intake | ||||||
| No of participants/ Total No of participants | 10 418/18 068 | 31 402/55 486 | 2872/6076 | 35 516/58 498 | 3680/6602 | 1973/4106 |
| Model 1 or 3 | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.91 to 0.98) | 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) | 1.00 | 0.78 (0.74 to 0.83) | 0.64 (0.58 to 0.69) |
| Model 2 or 4 | 1.00 | 0.91 (0.87 to 0.94) | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) | 1.00 | 1.01 (0.94 to 1.09) | 0.79 (0.71 to 0.87) |
AHEI=Alternative Healthy Eating Index.
Model 1 is the univariate analysis.
Model 2 adjusted for baseline age (continuous), race (white, black, Asian, and other), family history of cancer (yes, no), myocardial infarction (yes, no), or type 2 diabetes (yes, no), multivitamin use (yes, no), menopausal status (yes, no, women only), postmenopausal hormone use (yes, no, women only), cohort, education (registered nurse, bachelor degree, master degree, and higher, women only), social economic status (annual family income (four groups) for women and work status (disabled, retired, part time, full time) for men), aspirin use (yes, no), use of antihypertensive agents (yes, no), use of cholesterol lowering drugs (yes, no), and the other four risk factors at baseline as continuous variables.
Model 3 applies to changes in risk factors and is adjusted for all variables included in model 1, as well as group membership of trajectories of the risk factor (categorical).
Model 4 applies to changes in risk factors and is adjusted for all variables included in model 2, as well as group membership of trajectories of the risk factor (categorical).